I apologize for multiple posts in a row, but these budget discussions are getting my Irish up.
The House passed the budget this morning. This was a mere 24-hours after the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued its preliminary analysis of the budget. The timing looks like some Representatives were voting on the budget before they really understood what was in it.
The Bill Cuts Almost $1 Trillion From Programs For The Poor
According to the CBO, the big loser in this budget is poor people. The CBO found that the budget will reduce federal subsidies for Medicaid by $698 billion between 2026-2034. I am embarrassed to admit that I used to forget the difference between Medicare and Medicaid. Medicare is for our seniors. Medicaid is for our poor. There is another $267 billion in cuts for SNAP, which are food stamp programs. Despite these deep cuts to programs for our poor, the CBO still projects the federal debt will grow by $3.8 trillion over the same period. This is due largely to extending tax cuts, introducing new tax cuts, and increasing defense spending.
According to the CBO, in 2024, the top five line items in the federal budget were: SS ($1.454 trillion), Medicare ($1.089 trillion), defense ($954 billion), net interest ($881 billion), and Medicaid ($618 billion). Congress is not touching SS or Medicare. Congress is increasing defense spending by more than 13% and increasing our interest expense by increasing the debt. So I find myself asking why did we skip the top four line items and jump directly to the fifth.
The Administration And Congress Made A Political Calculation To Target The Poor
The answer, it seems to me, is that poor people can’t afford expensive lobbyists. Politicians will sooner risk losing votes from poor people than losing votes from seniors. Seniors are vocal, organized, mobilized, and well-represented, and they vote in large numbers. Large swaths of D.C. denizens are themselves seniors. Even though it is in our national interest to make structural changes to SS and Medicare, Congress won’t do it because it means potentially losing votes. This is another political calculation that ignores the math around our unsustainable debt. Our elected officials do not have the political courage to do what is necessary to secure our future. But they don’t seem to have a problem targeting poor people.
Now I am not saying that Medicaid should be immune from budget discussions. It should not. But I have zero confidence that the Administration or the House brought the kind of thoughtful consideration to Medicaid cuts that is necessary to ensure that worthy recipients are not denied critical support.
Despite These Deep Cuts, Our National Debt Is Still Growing
The Administration and Congress will undoubtedly say that Medicaid cuts are necessary to reduce the deficit. Except the deficit is still growing. When one compares the Medicaid cuts to tax breaks favoring the wealthy, it looks like we are taking money away from poor people and giving it to wealthy people. I don’t think this is how social welfare programs are supposed to work. The greatness of a civilization ought to be measured in large part by how it treats the less fortunate. On this score, we are failing.
Politicians Cannot Outrun The Math
To be clear, I don’t want to cut SS, Medicare or Medicaid. But I am a realist, and I can do the math. This is not a matter of want. This is a matter of necessity and what is in our national interest. We simply cannot afford to continue ignoring the problem. Unless and until our government gets serious about reducing the deficit and bringing the debt under control, these Medicaid cuts are just punching down.
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